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Timing method · Evidence

Evidence Levels for Event Timing

Rank deterministic dates, natal mechanisms, converging timing layers, contextual modifiers, and unsupported associations without turning them into certainty.

Simplified Chinese
应期判断的证据层级
Traditional Chinese
應期判斷的證據層級
Pinyin
Yīng Qī Pàn Duàn De Zhèng Jù Céng Jí
Also known as
Bazi timing evidence hierarchy

Editorially reviewed:

Overview

Evidence for Bazi event timing is not one flat score. The strongest layer is reproducible calculation: verified birth inputs, pillars, cycle boundaries, and effective dates. Interpretive evidence begins with a named natal mechanism and declared method. Confidence may increase when an active Luck Pillar and annual influence independently support the same pathway under complete conditions. Short cycles and secondary markers only refine context. Event guarantees, literal labels, unverifiable stories, and post-hoc matches are not valid evidence.

At a glance

Level 1
Reproducible calculations and dates
Level 2
Named natal mechanism
Level 3
Independent cycle convergence
Level 4
Short-cycle and secondary context
Not evidence
Literal labels and post-hoc stories
Output
Bounded confidence, not certainty

Level one: reproducible calculation

Birth inputs, time zone, solar-term and day boundaries, natal pillars, Luck-Pillar intervals, and annual Jiazi must be independently reproducible.

A boundary-sensitive result is shown as uncertain or as alternatives; interpretation cannot repair an unverified calculation.

  • Audit inputs and effective dates.
  • Separate calculation uncertainty.

Level two: a named natal mechanism

Identify the stems, branches, Ten Gods, palace, structure rule, and formation conditions relevant to the question.

Generic element keywords and isolated auspicious or ominous names do not establish a pathway.

  • Name participants and rules.
  • Record conditions and non-conditions.

Level three: independent timing convergence

Confidence may rise when the active Luck Pillar and annual influence support the same natal mechanism through distinct valid contacts.

Repeated copies of one symbol, correlated rules, and shared source assumptions are not independent evidence and require deduplication.

  • Check independence.
  • Publish counterevidence.

Use lower levels only for refinement

Months, days, hours, Fate Stars, Nayin, and anecdotes may add context only after the stronger layers are established.

Output a dated window, confidence band, limitations, and real-world next steps; never convert the hierarchy into a probability or guaranteed event.

  • Do not invent percentages.
  • Allow insufficient evidence.

Sources and editorial basis

  1. 《滴天髓》 (Dripping Heavenly Marrow)
    《滴天髓闡微》體用與歲運篇先立原局可指認的作用機制，再以後來干支的根、路徑及制化檢查是否得到支持A core later text on Bazi balance, seasonal strength, and relational reading.
  2. 《三命通會》 (Sanming Tonghui)
    《三命通會》歲運應期相關判法須多項成立條件與完整干支同參，單一名稱或一字出現不足以作為事件證據A historical compilation covering stems and branches, Ten Gods, Nayin, Shen Sha, and multiple classical pattern systems.
  3. OpenFate Editorial Methodology
    應期判斷的證據層級頁區分可重現計算、原局機制、獨立歲運匯合與輔助短期層，禁止虛構機率與事件保證OpenFate separates deterministic chart calculation, traditional interpretation, and modern editorial explanation.
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