Uncertainty in Bazi Cases
Represent birth-data, calculation, textual, method, interpretation, timing, and outcome uncertainty explicitly in every Bazi case.
Overview
Uncertainty in a Bazi case comes from several different sources and should not be collapsed into one confidence label. Birth records may be missing or rounded; historical time zones and calendar boundaries may be disputed; texts may vary; schools may define strength, structure, Useful God, or timing differently; and observed events may be vague, private, or selected after the fact. A robust case records each uncertainty, its plausible scenarios, affected outputs, and what remains stable across them. Confidence should follow the weakest material dependency, not the number of supporting symbols. Unknown is a valid result, and precise language should be reserved for deterministic calculations that are actually fixed.
At a glance
- Input uncertainty
- Record, time, place, time zone, calendar, and boundary
- Text uncertainty
- Edition, wording, attribution, punctuation, and commentary
- Method uncertainty
- Definition, priority, threshold, and integration policy
- Outcome uncertainty
- Date, meaning, source, selection, and privacy limits
- Required output
- Scenario, affected conclusion, stable conclusion, and confidence
- Valid result
- Unknown, conditional, disputed, or not applicable
Inventory uncertainty by layer
List uncertainty in source records, normalized inputs, deterministic calculation, textual source, interpretive method, event evidence, and analyst knowledge. Do not merge these into one vague disclaimer.
Rank which uncertainties can change pillars, derived relations, method classification, timing, or only wording. Materiality matters more than count.
- Name source and affected layer.
- Separate material from cosmetic uncertainty.
Propagate plausible scenarios
Calculate each materially different input scenario and run the same declared method through it. Show which facts and conclusions remain invariant.
For textual or school differences, retain parallel outputs. Do not choose one scenario because it aligns with the observed biography.
- Publish stable and unstable outputs.
- Avoid outcome-driven scenario selection.
Tie confidence to dependencies
A conclusion cannot be more certain than the uncertain data or rule on which it depends. Multiple correlated symbols do not create independent confidence.
Use descriptive grades with reasons rather than unsupported percentages. State what new record, passage, or observation would reduce uncertainty.
- Explain the confidence basis.
- Name the information needed for revision.
Make unknown a first-class result
Do not fill missing time, motive, event, family fact, or health information with symbolic inference. Suppress dependent sections when necessary.
Uncertainty language must remain visible in metadata, summaries, tables, and recommendations. It is not a footnote to a confident headline.
- Do not infer missing facts.
- Carry uncertainty through every output surface.
Sources and editorial basis
- 《御定星曆考原》卷一《星曆考原》的曆法、節氣與干支材料提供計算政策來源，也提示曆法與邊界選擇須明示A historical source for stem and branch Yin-Yang, Five Phase, direction, seasonal, and calendrical correspondences.
- 《子平真詮》 (True Explanations of Ziping)《子平真詮》不同整理與註解的格局、喜忌及救應材料提供方法與文本差異造成不確定性的對照A major reference for month-command, structure, and contextual Bazi interpretation.
- OpenFate Editorial Methodology案例不確定性頁分開資料、計算、文本、方法、解釋和事件誤差，用情境與最弱重要依賴校準信心OpenFate separates deterministic chart calculation, traditional interpretation, and modern editorial explanation.